Friday, April 18, 2008

Oil get a Grip

Today oil reached $117.00 a barrell. Those that predicted $200 a barrell are really not far off the mark.

I don't get it. It happens every time there is a bad oil story, for example today it is a sabotaged pipe in Nigeria, so the price is hiked and then it stays hiked, even after said pipe is long since repaired.

It is dangerous to use oil as a hedge for the American economy and is really insane. There is no rhyme or reason with the markets and the world economy at the moment making it entirely unpredictable. Who would invest in that environment?

I don't like to make predictions but to call a massive recession is not really far off the mark. What I would try to do though is think a tipping point for a depression, which we can't rule out either. This will happen when the UK has a real FTSE crash of about 20% and oil gets above $150 a barrel.

1 Comments:

Blogger Felix said...

Oil went to 149 bucks a barrel, the FTSE dropped 30%...not bad

9:06 PM  

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